Cometh the hour cometh the man

We have been living through interesting times. Brexit, Trump, the COVID pandemic, followed by the worst recession of modern times, the rise of an expansionist China, the decline of the west. It has been one upheaval after another.

But there finally seems to be light at the end of the tunnel.  Biden has entered the White house, and a sense of calm (at least for now) has fallen over the US. The vaccine is being rolled out rapidly (at least in Israel, the US, UK and a few other small countries). We are starting to look forward to summer and some kind of normality returning. 

But underneath it all, we are facing an existential crisis. America has essentially become two nations. Those who accept the democratic legitimacy of the president and those who don't. Some are now saying we should just accept this reality, arguing the two warring tribes need to find a way to co-exist, a bit like the protestants and catholics in Northern Ireland. 

But there are also two warring tribes, right here in Britain. No, I'm not talking about Brexit, but Scexit. It's a war that most Britons are blissfully unaware of, and care about even less. In poll after poll, a majority of Scots say they support independence. On the other side of the border are English nationalists, many of them Brexiteers, who say "the Scots take our money and hate us, let them go". Many have simply shrugged their shoulders and are resigned to independence. 

It's no exaggeration to say that the break up of the Union would also be an existential crisis for the west. 

It would be the European Union's worst nightmare, emboldening secessionist movements across Europe to do the same. The terrified Spaniards would veto any request from Scotland to join the EU for obvious reasons. If Scotland, why not Catalonia, the Basque region, Northern Italy, Waloonia, Flanders? The list goes on and on. It's difficult enough to govern an EU of 27 nations, imagine there were double that number? It would render the EU impotent. 

The irony is, there isn't some great cultural divide between Scotland and England in the way there is between Democrats and Republicans. Social attitude surveys have shown the two are pretty similar. I sometimes hear that Scotland "feels like a different country" but that doesn't wash. Go to Quebec. They have their own parliament, a different language, culture, even different road signs from the rest of Canada. And yet, after two independence referendums, they remain part of Canada. 

Then there are remainers who are revelling in schadenfreude at the prospect of Scexit. "If we voted to leave the EU, why shouldn't they be allowed to leave the UK?". Some remainers want Britain to suffer for the crime of Brexit. They're happy for the UK to fail.  

As someone who voted remain, this argument irks me. There is a big difference between Brexit and Scexit. One was a decision, rightly or wrongly, to leave a political and economic alliance that is not (yet) a political union. The other would be to dissolve a successful political and economic union that has been in existence for over 300 years. Whatever damage Brexit has done, the damage wrought by Scexit would be on a far greater scale.  

But what are irks me even more are the progressives who claim to hate nationalism but revere Nicola Sturgeon as some kind of saint. The SNP are no different to other nationalists across Europe, seeking to Balkanise Britain, playing the politics of grievance, of them vs us, of nation vs nation, English vs Scottish. Their rhetoric reminds me of the Trumpists with their alternative facts. I suspect there are a lot more unionists than the polls are showing, but you have to be pretty brave to raise your voice above the parapet, especially if you're under 30. To be a unionist is to be a social pariah. 

There are no winners from Scexit. Not the EU, not Scotland, nor the remainder of the UK. We will all be poorer, less relevant and less attractive to the world. The only winners will be Russia and China, China in particular, who will only be too happy to bail out an impoverished Scotland and add it to its circle of influence. 

Sadly the only arguments I ever hear against Scexit are the "project fear" arguments I heard before Brexit. And look where that got us. 

It makes no difference whether Scotland will be poorer, or keep the pound, or never be allowed to join the EU. If those are the arguments you're making, you've already the lost the argument. You've let the SNP frame the terms of the debate.  

On 6th May, the Nationalists are expected to achieve a landslide victory in the Hollyrood elections. They will immediately demand a second referendum on Independence. 

But it's not enough for Boris Johnson to simply say "No" to the Nationalists. That would be kicking the can down the road. He needs to counter with a commission that rethinks how we’re governed as a union. Should we devolve more powers? Should we move towards a federal system? I don't know the answer, but we need to talk about it. 

We need to have a conversation about why the union matters, in the same way that Americans are having to rediscover the importance of their constitution. We need to talk about how the union benefits all of us, but not just the economic arguments. That simply reduces the union to a marriage of convenience.  

We need to talk about the union as a force for good in the world whether it's foreign aid, standing up to despotic regimes like China, or climate change. (The 2021 UN Climate Change conference will be taking place in Glasgow).  We need to talk about how the union enables us to punch above our weight. e.g. our vaccination programme as of today has jabbed more people than the whole of the EU. We need to talk about how UK's legal and financial institutions are trusted across the world. And let's not forget our cultural heritage. And yes, english people need to take more interest in what is going on north of the border. 

The person who can and should lead that conversation is Gordon Brown. He is both a proud Scot and a unionist, and one of the few who are genuinely respected across the political divide north of the border. He is also one of the few who can give Nicola Sturgeon a run for her money. In 2014, he played a major role in saving the Union. He knows how to articulate our national story in the way that no-one else can. We need him to save the union again. 

Scottish independence is likely but not inevitable. It was only a couple of years ago that Jeremy Corbyn's premiership seemed to be a dead cert, yet he ended up losing by a landslide. 

It's not too late.